La Nina Returns, maybe

There was El Nino and now returns La Nina. Quite frankly, I am never really know if it an El Nino or La Nina year because of the schizophrenic climate patterns. Fortunately, at least, I can speak Spanish.

So what does this mean to you beside the issue of your winter being 50+ inches vs. 2 inches of snow. Well, this weather pattern can have an impact on crop growth through out the world. And with crop surplus or shortage, food prices go up and down, respectively.

So here in the US we can expect excess rains in the Northwest, which will benefit winter wheat, but, in contrast, the southeast can face dry and warm weather, which will impact corn, soybeans and wheat crops.

In South America, Columbia is expected to receive heavy rains, which can impact coffee bean crops. I guess my Starbucks cup of coffee will be more expensive this year. Argentina will be dry. This will impact corn and soybean crops.

Southeast Asia faces heavy rains and will continue to be inundated with rain. This has already destroyed rice fields and is impacting rubber, palm oil, coal and tin production.

Down under in Australia on the west coast, there will be heavy rain. This will impact the corn, wheat and sugar cane crops.

In addition, there is a threat of an Artic oscillation. This is the wild card. According to Mike Halpert of the US Climate Prediction Center, the erratic Artic Oscillation can change a shift in climate pattern or amplify La Nina's impact. With a negative oscillation, like the last two years, cold air is pushed down and that creates a colder winter and larger snow accumulation totals year in North America. This could push up the demand for natural gas heating and kill some of the warm weather winter crops in areas like Florida and other parts of the South.

Generally speaking, the weather is becoming more unpredictable, which can create fluctuations in commodity prices. For us, that can mean gyrating food, heating and electricity prices.

Buenos suertes.

The Economy is about Jobs, Jobs and more Jobs

Well, the 2012 campaign is beginning just when the 2011 summer is about to start. Amazing, the presidential campaign seems to be coming earlier and earlier each cycle, similar to the summer weather. We just experienced a mid-August type of heat wave at the end of May. Of course, the big issue for this presidential campaign will be jobs and the economy. Unfortunately, the economic numbers released for this past month do not look good. Only 54,000 jobs were added in May. This is not the pace we need to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels. In fact, it is not a good pace to get below 8%. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1%.

Who is the blame? The president, Congress, the state governments, or private businesses? Perhaps, it could be the weather, human incompetence and other global events. Many economist believe the weak growth in jobs and the sluggish economic numbers are due to weather related and global events, such as Japan's tsunami, tornadoes and flooding in the US south and mid-west and high oil and food prices.

In Japan, we are learning how much supply chain management has become a globally connected system. US companies get parts from all around the world and many car parts and electronic parts are from Japan. In fact, the Prius car sold by Toyota has seen an increase in the value of a used Prius because of the delays in new Prius car production due of the damage to Japanese factories that supply Prius cars and parts to the US. This disruption in supply chain management has also impacted electronic devices. In China, a major factory that builds products for Apple and HP caught on fire. Once again, this impacts parts and products getting to the US to be sold to the American consumer. If companies cannot produce product to sell to the American consumer, they do not need to employ additional workers, which impacts job growth.

Then there is the destruction in the South and mid-west with all of the tornadoes and flooding. This has impacted agriculture production and the movement and production of goods. The south has become a major area for manufacturing of goods for the US and many parts of the mid-west represent the US breadbasket. Clearly, this destruction in this region has impacted many families on a personal level, but it also has impacted the economy. This has also raised questions on whether the federal government should take responsibility to cover damages due to weather related events. Some Congressman have stated that funding to help the victims should be money that is actually available in the budget, which would mean taking money from other programs to pay for the reconstruction of these communities. This haggling over who should foot the bill could delay getting these communities up and back on their feet, which could also impact growth in our economy. If there is no funding to help rebuild these communities, many potential job opportunities in the construction sector sit idle until there is funding to pay for this work.

Then there is the issue of rising oil prices. One could argue that this is not weather related and due more to the events in the Middle East. That is probably true. Regardless, the rising cost of oil has impacted the prices at the pump and has cut into Americans' budgets. This means that money that they could use to purchase electronics, clothes and other goods is going to pay for filling their cars. Also, the cost of oil has impacted companies in manufacturing products due to rising energy costs. That cuts into their profit margins. That means there is less money and demand to higher more people, which again impacts job growth.

Another issue that has impacted the American wallet is the price of food. Because of the rising cost of oil and weather related event in the middle of the country and the South along with other weather related events impacting food production around the world, the price for groceries is going up. Once again, the discretionary spending of Americans are impacted. Therefore, a person has to chose between feeding his or her family or purchasing the latest Ipad. I would assume they would chose feeding the family over an electronic device. Although that might be a tough decision considering all the cool apps you can get on the Ipad.

The last thing is the government. The U.S. and state governments are concerned about deficit reduction are are cash strapped. As a result, they are forced to cut back on spending and to reduce staff. In the month of May the government shed 29,000 workers.

Based on the foregoing, it is not surprising that the US economy has slowed down and job growth has decreased. The question here is whether this is temporary or signs of another double dip recession. I am hoping the former rather than the later. One person that could help us is mother nature by cutting back on these devastating natural disasters. I am just hoping that she is a capitalist.

A Snow Job over the Economy

This has been a horrible winter where I live. In fact, this year's record snowfall total surpassed last year's total, which was also a record. I have packed up that U-haul to move to a warmer climate. But where do I move?

It seems that most of the US had a bad winter. There was one satellite picture of North America taken after the onslaught of several storms across the US and it looked like all of North America was covered in snow. This snow not only has taken a toll on our bodies and psyche, it has taken a toll on our economy and the economy in other countries too.

For example, the UK got hit with extremely bad weather in December and its GDP dropped .5% due to the in climate weather. Germany's industrial production in December shrank 1.5% due to the snow. Part of the weak job growth in the US earlier this year was due to the bad weather. According to the Economist magazine, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), a British trade group, estimated that the UK economy lost £1.2 billion ($1.9 billion) for each day of the December freeze.

Of course, some people benefit from these snow days, and I am not including kids who are off from school. There are many people earning extra income in offering snow plowing services. Also, the ski resorts' profit margins increase due to the increase of skiers and the decrease in the need to make snow. In addition, tree removal services benefit from the downed trees caused by the bad weather. Moreover, car repair shops benefit from the fender benders caused by the treacherous driving.

Still, the majority of businesses are hurt by this weather. It reduces the production level of its employees because either they cannot make it into work or if they can make it to work, other persons or resources needed to do their work are unavailable, Of course, technology has mitigated that slightly because many people who work in the office can work from home. That is assuming, however, that they did not lose power from the fallen tree that knocked down the power line or they have to spend their time entertaining their kids who are off from school. In general, it causes disruption from closing of schools and offices along to flight delays or cancellations and delays in public transportation.

Interestingly, many economist have stated that the potential profits are not lost completely, but rather delayed. In 2010, when there was bad weather, the month proceeding the bad weather saw a larger increase in output and production. In the end, you see less of an even growth, but you see growth.

Nonetheless, I am hoping for the rest of 2011 that I do not have to write about or see snow. I, among many of us, have seen enough snow for the next several winters. Perhaps, a sure guarantee for that is to move to Caribbean. Then again, they get hurricanes.

Not Apologizing is Costly

Chevron got hit with a $9.47 billion fine from a court in Ecuador for polluting the water in the arc of the rainforest territory for polluting the region's water supply while pumping large amounts of oil in that region since the 1970s. If this judgement is upheld, the damage amount may be the highest-ever awarded in an environmental case. To add insult to injury, if Chevron does not make a public apology within 15 days of the issuing date of the judgement, the fine could go up to $17.2 billion.

At this point, the Company is not willing to apologize. Chevron is stating that the company it acquired Texaco cleaned up the polluted water before it ceased operations in the region and the current problems are due to another oil company, Petroecaudor, which is owned by the Ecuadorian government. Regardless of who is at fault, the inhabitants of that region complain of above-average cancer rates and the dumping of 15.8 billion gallons of toxic water into the streams of the rivers that supplies most of the areas drinking water.

At first blush, it would appear that Chevron has a pretty tough hill to climb because the entity it is blaming to have caused this problem is owned by the government. Chevron, however, has filed a suit in a New York court against the plaintiffs' lawyers alleging fraud and attempted extortion. Specifically, they claim that plaintiffs' lawyers have colluded with court officials to get this outrageously high amount of damages. In addition, Chevron has no assets in Ecuador. Therefore, collecting damages will be difficult. Ecuador will have to other authorities in countries where Chevron has assets to enforce this judgement. Most importantly, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague along with a court in New York issued an injunction temporally blocking this move by Ecuador.

In the end, Ecuador and the inhabitants of the plotted region may not receive an apology any type of damage payout. What seemed like a major victory now seems more like a Pyhric victory.

The Apocalypse or Just Another Day on the Planet Where Large Amounts of Wildlif Die

eMany of you have heard about the "rare" occurrence of 5000 blackbirds dropping dead in Arkansas and dozens of jackdaws falling from the sky in Sweden along with a few hundred turtle doves in Italy. At least the last one sounds like a scrooge-like Christmas prank. Nevertheless, should I take out my bible and read about the signs of the apocalypse? According to many scientists, mass animal deaths are not a rare occurrence. According to the National Wild Life Center in Madison, WI, which has been tracking mass animal deaths since the 1970s, there have been 188 cases just involving birds with mortality exceeding one thousand per event over the last ten years.

There are a variety reasons besides the "Act of God" that causes these deaths, such as animal starvation, animals eating toxic foods or getting poisoned by people. Some people hypothesized that the massive bird death in Arkansas could have been due to New Year fireworks scaring birds and causing them to fly into buildings, trees and other large hard objects.

According to the US Geological Survey, on average, there are between 160 to 200 such "mass death" events in the wildlife reported each year. In fact, there have been much larger bird deaths than the ones that just happened. In 1996 more than 100,000 ducks died of botulism in Canada.

So should we be afraid? Perhaps not, but then again there are some events that concern the science community, such as over one millions bats dying over the last three years due to the fungal affliction called "nose syndrome." Bats help in pollination of plants and reduce the mosquito population.

In the end, these rare occurrences are not so rare. At the same time, we should still be concerned that the wildlife is dying off in large amounts. It might not be the apocalypse; however, it could be a sign that the ecosystem is deteriorating. Also, certain populations like bats dying off can have significant impacts on our lives. So next time you see a bird slam into your window, you can sit back and relax knowing that its just a "natural" occurrence. Just make sure you stock up on mosquito repellent.

A Heat Wave in Winter Time

While we are digging out from another big snow storm on the east coat of the US and the West is facing another wet wintry mix, South America is in the middle of a heat wave. This is cutting into the harvest forecasts, which is pushing up crop prices to two year highs. Global food prices have been somewhat elastic even with the crop shortages from Russia this summer. This latest crop reduction may test this price elasticity. The dry weather in South America is caused by the La Nina weather pattern, which has already damaged the corn crops in Argentina. Argentina is the world's second largest exporter of corn and third largest exporter of soybeans. Both Brazil and Uruguay have declared a state of emergency with rising temperatures and small amounts of precipitation. Ironically, California has been experiencing an enormous amount of rain and snow during a La Nina season; however, many forecasters believe that California will soon be experiencing a dry winter.

Currently, the prices of corn, wheat and soybeans remain well below the peak prices in 2008. However, some analysts see a rise in prices of these crops in the near future, which means an increase in food prices at the supermarket. This may have a bigger impact in emerging markets where food inflation can have a significant impact on its population became more of their disposable income goes to food than in developed countries. A way countries may address this potential inflation is limit exports of its own crops like Russia did this summer. Countries like India are offering other alternatives, such as food subsidies, where the country is already dealing with food inflation surging to 12.13% from 9.46%.

In fact, corn and soybean futures contracts have already increased this month by 18% and 9%, respectively, to their highest prices since the financial crisis undercut commodity prices in 2008. Corn is up 51% since then and soybeans are up 31%. Also, wheat prices this month have increased 23% because of the significant amount of rain in Australia, which has ruined wheat crops there.

So in the end for Americans, this means that the lovely Chilean grapes that you have in the dead of winter might be a little more expensive this year. Unfortunately, this might have a great impact to a family in Haiti or India.

Is this a lot of hot air? And it is not always sunny in Spain.

The continuous battle between China and US in the WTO continues; however, this time it involves renewable energy. The US has requested to talk to China at the World Trade Organization to end the hundred of millions of dollars of subsidies China is spending to build up its wind-power production. Most of us would say, "What is wrong if China wants to build its own wind technology and spend government money on that?" The answer is that China is not just building technology for its own wind production. It is building technology for export to other countries. The US is already falling behind to China in renewable technology. Right now, China ranks among the top ten producers globally in wind-turbine production. So what is the American government's beef here? Actually, it is not just our government complaining. It is also the United Steelworkers complaining too.

The Chinese government is providing wind-power manufacturing grants to this Chinese producers using parts made domestically, which such grants ranges from $6.7 million to $22.5 million. This is a form of import subsidization that creates less incentive for Chinese wind turbine producers to use imported parts, such as US parts, because they will less likely get a grant from the Chinese government to operate their business. Thus, it creates an indirect barrier for US imported parts to get into the Chinese market.

Ironically, one way to mitigate this would be for the US government help develop its own wind-energy program and wind producing technology. Unfortunately, with a push for austerity in government, that is most likely not going to happen.

Solar Side Note: Spain is in the middle of a debt crisis and the Spanish government is looking to cut certain subsidized programs. It looks like Spain's solar energy program is one of the victims of the Spanish debt cutting. The Spanish government is expected to adopt a proposal within the next few days to cut solar-PV subsidies by as much as 30%. There is, however, some push back here. Many investors, including a foreign hedge fund investors in the UK, are pushing back arguing that this was never communicated to them when the invested in the first place. They view this as a "breach of trust." Ironically, some of this view that this action will cause solar producers to default on their loans with the banks without these subsidies. Which is worse, a business defaulting on it loans or the Spanish government? I believe most people in the EU, the US and IMF would say that the Spanish government defaulting would be worse as we saw the chaos created in Ireland and Greece as both countries were on the precipice of such default.